A decade after the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that split the nation and unleashed turmoil, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly fraught and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our region remains very unstable."
New Title Seeks to Stir Debate
The pair have analysed the political, financial and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue such a time is approaching, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but very few government figures or advocates are willing to participate with the essentials. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, none of the commentators supports unification or the existing arrangement. Each authors two articles that seek impartiality in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling financial and societal figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments encompass flags and symbols, levies, health services, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and encourage discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented the writer. "Debate implies an acceptance of the idea that there could be good arguments on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they prefer unity but oppose increased taxation or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride thinks a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, justified perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will win in this matter and the other side will in the end be defeated but each side has got valuable insights to gain from the other's viewpoints."
Request for Wider Dialogue
Westminster should engage with the discussion, urged the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."
