War-torn Burma Goes to the Polls in Broadly Condemned Political Theater.

Myanmar is going to the polls in a electoral process broadly rejected as a farce, with key opposition groups dissolved, numerous figures imprisoned and a significant portion of the country unable to participate because of an continuing internal conflict.

A Phased Ballot Amid Conflict

The military government is conducting a phased ballot nearly half a decade after it seized power in a takeover, which sparked massive protests and escalated into a devastating conflict.

Observers say the junta, with China's support, is attempting to validate and entrench its power as it looks for a way out of the costly stalemate.

"The environment does not allow for the exercise of the freedoms of free speech, assembly or peaceful assembly," UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Volker Türk said.

Over two hundred people have been prosecuted for interfering with or criticising the polls under a recently enacted legislation which carries severe punishments, including the possibility of execution.

Director Mike Tee, performer Kyaw Win Htut and comedian Ohn Daing were among the well-known individuals convicted under the law, which was enacted in July. They were each given a seven-year jail term after criticising a promotional video promoting the elections.

Logistical Nightmare and Coercion

Civilians are "being coerced from all sides," Mr Türk said in a statement, adding that armed rebel groups have made warnings asking people to boycott the polls.

The army has been fighting on multiple battlefields, against both pro-democracy fighters who oppose the coup, as well as ethnic armies which have their own militias. It lost control of vast areas of the country in a string of defeats, but regained territory this year following sustained aerial bombardment enabled by support from Beijing and Moscow.

All of this and the fact that large parts of the country are still under opposition control presents a massive operational hurdle for holding an election.

A Limited Vote

Voting is set to take place in three phases over the next month in 274 of the country's 330 townships, with the rest deemed too unstable. Outcomes are expected around the end of January.

There is not expected to be any voting in as much as one half of the country. Even in the townships that are voting, not all constituencies will hold elections, making it difficult to forecast a possible turnout.

A handful of parties, including the junta-supported Union Solidarity and Development Party, are fielding candidates nationwide, while dozens more parties and independent candidates will compete only at the local levels.

Approximately forty groups, including Aung San Suu Kyi's National League of Democracy, which achieved landslide victories in 2015 and 2020, have been dissolved. Suu Kyi and many of the party's senior figures have been jailed under charges broadly viewed as politically motivated, while the rest are in exile.

International Condemnation

"By splitting the vote into stages, the junta can adjust tactics if the outcomes in the initial round do not go their way," noted Htin Kyaw Aye, a representative of the election-monitoring group Spring Sprouts.

Nations in the West, including the UK and the EU legislature, have rejected the vote as a pretence, while neighbouring group Asean has called for political dialogue to precede any election.

The Myanmar regime has rejected criticism of the polls, maintaining that it aims to "return [the country] to a democracy with multiple parties".

"The election is being held for Myanmar. It is being held for the citizens of this country. It is not intended for the international community," a junta spokesman told a news conference last week.

Military leader Min Aung Hlaing warned earlier this week that those who refuse to vote are rejecting "the path to democracy".